THE NATIONAL INSTABILITY
INDICATOR ( NII )
(previously named National Instability index,
but Indicator is a better descriptor)
Revised: Jan. 2024
An Indicator of the social, political,
economical, or environmental Instability within a Nation.
Since I first created the NII
equation, about a decade ago, two of the variables have
changed. The CIA and the U.N. are now using Gross National Income (GNI) instead of GDP (Gross Domestic
Product) and Natural Increase in Population (NIP)
instead of RIP (Rate of Increase in Population). However,
using the new variables, the equation is still valid.
The Natural
Increase in Population (NIP) is defined as the crude
birth rate minus the crude death rate.
The equation to calculate the NII of a nation is:
NII
= (TFR x NIP) / GNI
Where:
TFR
= Total Fertility Rate = Number
of children per women.
NIP = Natural Increase in Population
per 1000.
GNI = Gross National
Income (in Billions).
The old equation was: NII = (TFR x RIP) / GDP
Where RIP = Rate of Increase in Population.
The TFR, NIP, and GNI for
each country are available at the UN and the CIA Web sites. It is
public domain data. Wikipedia also has that data. Links to the
Wikipedia data are provided in the References section at the end
of this page. I removed previous links to the CIA website, because
they redesigned their website and links to old pages are no longer
valid.
When I first created the NII, I used TFRs
and RIPs for the years 2005 - 2010
(They are averaged and reported every 5 years).
I noticed that countries that have the highest
NII in different areas of the world,
are the most unstable countries in that region, and usually
they have had or are having problems that may not seem related to
their population growth, but I believe that they are directly or
indirectly related.
I have also noticed that the higher the NII of a nation, the
higher the probability that such nation experience a plague such
as Ebola, HIV, Colera, or a famine, or civil war, or migration to
a nation with a very low NII.
Take a look at this data, and notice that
countries with an NII of 1 or
greater are the ones in trouble.
Using data from (2005-2010)

The smaller the NII,
the better for the stability of the country.
Data from (2005-2010)

So it seems that the problem is "NOT the total population
of a country", nor "how many persons per square
miles" it has. The problem is the rate of growth
of the population and the number of
children per women that they are
having, specially when their GNI, or their resources are not
able to support the rapid population growth.
They need to reduce their population or increase their Gross
National Income. They believe that their civil wars are for
religious or political reasons. They are unaware (at a
conscious level) that the reason, they are killing each other,
is because "nature (or the Life Force)" wants to reduce their
rapid population growth. For the benefit of all life forms on
this planet.
Note: The data for 2010-2015
& 2015-2020 is now available. However, I do not feel the need
to use the new data with the NII equation. I have already proved,
with the 2005-2010 data, that the NII is a valid indicator of the
instability of a nation.
REFERENCE LINKS:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_national_income
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_increase
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.PP.CD
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